PCs and Smartphones face Memory Shortage Crisis, Says IDC

In December 2025, an in-depth analysis was conducted concerning the global memory shortage crisis and its potential repercussions on the PC and smartphone markets as 2026 approached. Initially, two pessimistic scenarios were outlined, estimating market declines ranging from low to high single-digit percentages. This week, IDC revealed updated forecasts for both the global PC and mobile phone markets, portraying a markedly grimmer outlook than previously anticipated.

As worries regarding DRAM and NAND pricing intensified towards the end of 2025, manufacturers in the PC and smartphone sectors acted swiftly to mitigate potential setbacks. Shipments saw a noteworthy surge during the last quarter of 2025, as revealed in the recent press releases regarding historical Q4 2025 PC and mobile phone shipment figures. This escalated activity has extended into the first quarter of 2026 for the PC market as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) hurriedly released products before the impending memory and storage cost increases took effect. Consequently, Q1 2026 is now projected to surpass previous November forecasts significantly in the PC market. However, for smartphones, the outlook is bleaker, with a forecasted 6.8% decline in Q1 2026. Anticipated steep memory price hikes and the challenges faced by smaller vendors in securing sufficient supply are expected to cause a substantial drop in unit volumes, particularly in the second quarter. Consequently, while average selling prices (ASPs) are likely to rise, demand will dwindle, leading to reduced year-over-year unit growth despite creating a facade of revenue stability due to inflated ASPs.

Projections now indicate a drastic 11.3% decline in the global PC market in 2026, accompanied by a modest 1.6% revenue growth attributed to heightened ASPs. The market is anticipated to plateau in 2027, with a rebound deferred to 2028. Conversely, the smartphone market paints an even grimmer picture, with a forecasted 12.9% decline globally in 2026, portraying a 0.5% revenue decrease. The smartphone sector is poised for a meager 1.9% growth in 2027, followed by a more robust 5.2% rebound in 2028.

The forecast outlines an enduring memory supply crisis throughout 2026 and potentially extending into 2027. Although the acceleration in memory prices is expected to alleviate in the latter half of the current year, prices are projected to continue climbing and remain elevated while exhibiting no sign of reverting to 2025 levels in the foreseeable future. The underlying dynamics contributing to the scarcity, namely escalating AI infrastructure demand competing with consumer device requirements for the same DRAM and NAND capacity, are firmly rooted. While some relief may transpire through memory capacity expansions and the involvement of smaller memory suppliers in China, it is unlikely to offset the shortage substantially or steer the crisis course.

The rippling aftermath of the crisis is becoming discernible and is poised to reshape the competitive landscape in the PC and smartphone sectors, in addition to impacting other device markets like tablets, XR headsets, wearables, and gaming consoles. Larger companies with enhanced purchasing power, robust supplier relationships, and the ability to engage in voluminous contracts are better equipped to secure memory allocations at escalated yet manageable prices. Conversely, smaller and regional vendors, grappling with tighter margins, are anticipated to face challenges in competing for supply. A notable market share shift in favor of major global OEMs is anticipated throughout 2026.

Furthermore, it is projected that certain vendors will begin introducing devices with reduced memory capacities. Some OEMs might opt to decrease average DRAM and NAND configurations in products rather than absorbing the entire cost burden of pricier memory. In both the smartphone and PC markets, base configurations could witness significant reductions in RAM and SSD capacities. The repercussions will primarily impact the lower tiers of both markets, with budget smartphones and entry-level PCs being the most vulnerable. Typically operating on slender margins, vendors within these segments find it arduous to absorb escalating memory costs. Consequently, customers and small businesses, already sensitive to prices, are likely to delay device acquisitions, elongate replacement cycles, and diminish unit volumes as a result.

The smartphone sector, in particular, is poised to endure severe implications. Last year, over 360 million smartphones