Opinion market volume reaches $8B monthly, prompting questions about data

Opinion Labs has made a significant mark in the prediction market industry, hitting $8.08 billion in monthly volume in January, accounting for about 31% of the entire market share. This achievement has put them in the spotlight as a rapidly growing exchange, positioning them as potential rivals to established platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. However, a closer look at the data raises questions about the accuracy of Opinion’s growth.

The BNB Chain-based prediction market entered the scene on October 23, 2025, and quickly gained momentum, surpassing $1 billion in weekly volume within a month. By December, they were already outperforming both Kalshi and Polymarket in terms of notional volume. In January, Opinion.Trade recorded an impressive $8.08 billion in monthly notional volume, a feat that many deemed unprecedented in the history of prediction markets. Backed by Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s venture arm, the Hong Kong-based startup’s rise to the top was rapid and unexpected.

Despite their remarkable growth, there are some anomalies in Opinion’s data that set them apart from other platforms. They have been seeing trades that are 13–25 times larger than their competitors, user base fluctuations of up to 6 times within weeks, and a doubling of volume per user as the platform expanded, which is contrary to typical growth patterns. This prompted a deeper analysis of the data from Dune to understand the reasons behind Opinion’s rapid ascend and the implications.

Before delving into the numbers, it is essential to understand the context behind Opinion Labs. Founded in 2023 in Hong Kong by Forrest Liu, a Columbia University graduate and former corporate finance associate, the platform’s regulatory positioning and backing play a significant role in interpreting its volume data. While their CEO and a blockchain infrastructure expert have been mentioned in coverage, the rest of the team remains largely unidentified. This lack of transparency contrasts with the public profiles of the leadership team at Kalshi and Polymarket, adding a layer of mystery to Opinion’s operations.

In terms of funding, Opinion is supported by YZi Labs, CZ’s venture arm, which led a $5 million seed round in March 2025. Subsequent funding rounds raised an additional $20 million in a pre-Series A, with a reported valuation exceeding $500 million. CZ’s involvement in other prediction market ventures on the BNB Chain, such as predict.fun, and partnership with Trust Wallet further highlight his interest in diversifying within the industry.

It is worth noting that Opinion operates outside the U.S. regulatory framework that oversees its competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket. While the former is a fully CFTC-regulated exchange with stringent compliance measures and federal oversight, Opinion enjoys a different regulatory landscape. This distinction adds another layer of complexity when assessing the platform’s growth and implications within the prediction market ecosystem.

Overall, Opinion’s meteoric rise in the prediction market industry raises pertinent questions about the validity of their growth data and the impact of their operational model. As they continue to disrupt the landscape with their significant market share and strategic backing, the industry watches closely to see how this upstart will shape the future of prediction markets.