DHL Global Forwarding notes stable airfreight market

DHL Global Forwarding has released insights regarding the air cargo market in the first quarter of 2026, anticipating a balanced scenario. Despite the steady demand, growth is expected to be slower than in previous years, with regions and trade lanes showing mixed signals. Notably, there is continued growth on Asia-Europe routes, while Asia-North America volumes are increasing at a more moderate pace.

When looking at the entire year, projections from IATA suggest a year-on-year demand increase ranging from 2.4% to 2.6%, depicting a slowdown compared to the 3.4% growth seen the previous year. This deceleration can be attributed to anticipated weaker trade brought about by geopolitical fragmentation, regulatory barriers, and other factors hindering growth presently.

Regarding capacity, there is an expectation of moderate global growth, with specific increases seen in various regions and routes. Statistics show a 5% capacity surge in January, with particular rises on Asia-Europe and Asia-Middle East routes. However, transpacific capacities remain constant or slightly down, reflecting the adaptability of carriers to changing market demands.

Capacity utilization is reported to be stable or slightly increasing, supporting consistent yields, though regional disparities and overall macro risks are expected to impact market dynamics moving forward. Challenges such as geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and broader economic uncertainties are causing carriers to be cautious in adding too much capacity during the first quarter.

Looking ahead, DHL forecasts ongoing pressure on widebody airfreight capacity, aligning with expectations from IATA and the existing backlog of aircraft orders. The air cargo industry is poised for continued growth, driven in part by e-commerce demands that saw a 3.4% increase in air cargo volume in 2025.

In other industry news, Nippon Express-owned freight forwarder cargo-partner has introduced a new Hong Kong Consol service tailored for the automotive and high-tech/electronics sectors. Additionally, the Airforwarders Association’s executive director Brandon Fried is set to retire at the end of this year, marking the end of an era in the air cargo industry. AIT Worldwide Logistics has also been acquired by Greenbriar Equity Group, representing a substantial investment in the global freight forwarding sector.

As the industry continues to evolve, it is evident that adaptability and strategic planning will be crucial for freight forwarders to navigate the current market landscape successfully.