Stock market outlook: International signals, policy minutes, and FII flows expected to influence indices.

Investors are preparing to scrutinize both global and domestic influences in the upcoming week to determine the trajectory of the Indian stock market following a significant decline in benchmark indices. The Indian stock market experienced a significant drop on Friday, February 13, due to weak global cues and rising concerns surrounding artificial intelligence and its potential impact on the global economy.

The BSE benchmark index plummeted by 1.25 percent, amounting to a loss of 1,048 points, closing at 82,626.76. Similarly, the NSE index slipped by 1.30 percent, losing 336 points and settling at 25,471.10. Choice Broking highlighted in its analysis of the Nifty technical outlook that immediate resistance lies at 25,700, whereas substantial support is evident at 25,300. A breach below 25,300 could accelerate downward momentum, while a sustained rise above 25,700 might revive bullish sentiment. Traders are advised to adhere to a range-bound strategy with stringent stop-loss measures in the current scenario.

In the upcoming week, investors will closely monitor various indicators such as the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes, US GDP data for the October–December quarter, and the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy meeting minutes scheduled to be released on February 20. The performance of the IT sector will also be under scrutiny after experiencing significant selling pressure, resulting in an 8 percent decline in the Nifty IT index. Major players like Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and Wipro faced considerable strain as concerns arose regarding the potential impact of generative and agentic artificial intelligence technologies on the demand for traditional outsourcing services, potentially affecting future earnings for IT companies.

Additionally, market participants will keep a keen eye on global commodity trends, particularly gold and silver prices, which entered a consolidation phase following a recent selloff. Foreign institutional investor (FII) activity is expected to play a critical role in shaping market sentiment, with FIIs exhibiting a bullish trend in February, possibly influenced by the positive developments surrounding the India–US trade agreement. As such, FII flows are anticipated to provide further direction to market indices alongside global cues, policy minutes, and developments in the IT sector.