OPEC projects oil market outlook for 2027

The forecast for the world economy in 2027 is a steady expansion with robust growth expected at 3.2%, slightly higher than the 2026 projection of 3.1%. Major economies, including the US, Eurozone, and Japan, are expected to contribute to this growth. Non-OECD countries like China, India, and developing Asian economies are anticipated to play a significant role in driving global economic growth. Brazil and Russia are also projected to experience steady growth.
In terms of monetary policies, inflation is predicted to normalize further, providing a foundation for continued adjustments in the major economies. Global trade is forecast to gain momentum in the near future following major trade agreements. However, certain trade agreements, such as the US-China trade agreement and the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement extension, will require close monitoring as they could influence global trade.
The oil market outlook for 2027 indicates a healthy expansion in global oil demand, expected to increase by 1.3 mb/d year-over-year. Non-OECD countries are poised to contribute significantly to this growth due to strong economic activity. Among OECD regions, oil demand is expected to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, mainly driven by the Americas and Europe, while a slight decline is anticipated in the Asia Pacific region. Non-OECD regions such as Other Asia, India, China, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America are expected to drive oil demand growth.
Transportation fuels, particularly air travel, are anticipated to fuel oil demand growth in 2027, with both international and domestic traffic on the rise. Gasoline requirements are expected to increase with rising road mobility in countries like India, Other Asia, the Middle East, and the US. On-road diesel demand is projected to be supported by trucking and industrial activities in non-OECD regions. Light distillates are expected to benefit from petrochemical capacity additions in China and the Middle East.
Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to grow by approximately 0.6 mb/d year-over-year in 2027, driven by planned developments and capital commitments in the upstream sector. Upstream oil investment in non-OPEC countries is expected to reach around $284 billion in 2027, slightly higher than the previous year. Latin America is projected to drive most of the non-OPEC liquids supply growth, with significant contributions from countries like Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina in addition to the US.