CBRE predicts resurgence in commercial real estate in 2026, anticipates growth in Greater Victoria

A recent forecast from CBRE indicates that the commercial real estate market in Canada is expected to rebound in 2026, presenting opportunities for growth in Greater Victoria. The Canada Real Estate Market Outlook report projects an increase in national commercial property sales by over eight percent this year. This surge in sales could potentially reach a total investment volume of around $56 billion, a significant increase from the estimated $47 billion in 2025, marking the third-highest total on record.

According to CBRE Canada president and CEO Jon Ramscar, international investors have expressed confidence in Canadian commercial real estate due to the country’s stability and robust fundamentals. Greater Victoria, specifically, is seen as a region that is likely to attract interest from both private and institutional investors, particularly in the multi-family sector.

The report highlights the ongoing demand for stable cash flow assets with long-term growth potential, emphasizing opportunities linked to rental increases, property repositioning, and capital enhancements. The construction of new purpose-built rental properties with high occupancy rates is expected to draw increased attention amidst the continuous gap between housing demand and supply in the area.

Forecasts for retail activity in Greater Victoria predict a stable market in 2026, with national retailers expanding into the Vancouver Island market. CBRE suggests that income-producing retail plazas and strip malls, notably those anchored by grocery or drug stores, will remain as attractive investment options. Despite the anticipation of approximately 230,000 square feet of new retail supply next year, there is a caution regarding the potential softening of demand for unleased “shell space” if construction costs remain high.

The industrial strata market in Greater Victoria, which has faced oversupply in recent years, is showing signs of stabilization. CBRE anticipates further positive absorption in this sector as interest rates stabilize and competitively priced strata units experience increased activity. The demand for freestanding industrial properties with yard space in core locations is expected to remain high for both leasing and sales.

While the report notes a gradual recovery in the office sector for major Canadian markets, Greater Victoria is predicted to lag behind due to the uncertainty caused by government tenants reassessing workspace needs. However, there is some optimism for improvement as private-sector tenants adapt to remote work policies. The completion of TELUS Ocean, the only office project under construction in the region, is expected to deliver approximately 154,000 square feet of office space downtown early next year.

Overall, CBRE’s insights paint a positive picture for the commercial real estate landscape in Canada, with Greater Victoria poised for growth and investment opportunities in various sectors, despite some market uncertainties and challenges.