Comparison of Investment Outlook: Palantir vs BigBear.ai

Palantir, a company known for its AI software platform, experienced significant commercial growth in the third quarter of 2025. Commercial revenue surged by an impressive 73% year-over-year, reaching $548 million. This surge reflects strong demand among corporate clients, hinting at further revenue growth for the company in the future.

The addition of 50 new commercial customers in the quarter brought Palantir’s total to 742. This expanding customer base is expected to drive broader adoption of Palantir’s platform, ultimately leading to increased revenue and market share for the company.

On the other hand, BigBear.ai, a competitor of Palantir, is facing financial struggles. BigBear.ai’s revenue guidance for 2025 is projected to be between $125 million and $140 million, down from $158 million in 2024. The company’s reliance on government contracts has weakened its market competitiveness, impacting its revenue projections negatively.

In terms of market outlook, while BigBear.ai trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 12.6, significantly lower than Palantir’s ratio of 111, Palantir’s dominant position in the AI software platform market positions it favorably for long-term growth. This makes Palantir a more attractive option for investors looking for growth potential.

Looking ahead, Palantir is expected to report strong fourth-quarter earnings. Earnings per share are projected to be $0.23, reflecting a 64.3% year-over-year increase, while revenue is expected to rise by 61.9% to $1.34 billion. This growth suggests promising opportunities in AI and defense contracts for the company.

During the Q3 earnings call, CFO David Glazer raised the full-year revenue guidance midpoint to $4.398 billion, representing a 53% year-over-year increase. This increase, along with the Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $1.329 billion, demonstrates confidence in Palantir’s future growth prospects.

In a show of confidence in Palantir’s capabilities, Citi Research upgraded the company from Neutral to Buy and increased the price target from $210 to $235. This upgrade implies nearly 55% upside potential from the previous closing price of $151.86, indicating strong market confidence in the company’s AI and defense offerings.

Palantir’s accelerated commercial expansion is notable, as customers are increasingly opting for enterprise-wide deployments over single-use cases. Commercial revenue is expected to grow by 51%, outpacing government revenue growth of 43%, showcasing the company’s potential in the AI adoption and industry expansion space.

In the political arena, the newly formed super PAC, Leading the Future, raised $125 million in 2025 to support candidates advocating for national AI regulations instead of state-by-state laws. This approach aims to promote unified development in the AI sector.

By the end of the year, the PAC reported having $70 million on hand, establishing a strong financial foundation within its first year. The PAC has engaged in the midterm elections, opposing Democratic candidate Alex Bores, who championed New York’s new AI law, while supporting Republican candidate Chris Gober in Texas, demonstrating its reach across party lines.

Backed by private equity firm Andreessen Horowitz and prominent figures in the AI industry, the PAC has garnered significant industry support. This support underscores the push for a uniform national AI policy that fosters technological advancement.