Kalshi Traders predict low chances of $100K Bitcoin rebound by 2025

Bitcoin’s price recently saw a 17% rebound from lows near $82,000, climbing up to almost $93,000. This significant recovery was observed between November 21 and November 28, despite failing to break the key resistance level of $95,000. During this time, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a combined influx of $221 million in net inflows. However, the optimism generated by this inflow was met with caution from prediction markets.

These prediction markets turned bearish following a lawsuit against Kalshi for alleged market manipulation. Traders on Kalshi began to decrease the likelihood of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 by the end of 2025 due to these developments. The confidence in a bullish outcome also weakened as Bitcoin whales exhibited subdued activity. For instance, BlackRock, a major asset manager, recorded an outflow of $117 million, signaling a lack of conviction in the market.

Furthermore, Strategy Inc., led by Michael Saylor, maintained a pause in its weekly Bitcoin purchases after a 14-week streak that commenced in August. Their last purchase was recorded on November 17, amounting to 8,178 BTC worth $836 million. This cessation of buying emphasizes the current cautious sentiment among prominent Bitcoin investors.

Kalshi’s prediction markets reflected this uncertainty, with odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 diminishing by 11% on November 29. Concurrently, the probability of Bitcoin faltering below $80,000 by the end of 2025 increased. The odds of a breakout beyond $110,000 also declined, indicating a prevailing mood of skepticism among traders.

The technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price movement suggests a reestablishment of bullish dominance if the daily close exceeds $95,000. This scenario would pave the way for a potential surge towards $100,000, negating the prevailing bearish sentiment in the prediction markets. However, the risk of a sharp downturn looms if Bitcoin fails to maintain support above $90,000, with repeated closures below $89,500 potentially leading to a correction to $85,880.

In conclusion, the recent Bitcoin price rebound coupled with cautious market sentiment underscores the current uncertainty surrounding the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory. Institutional investor actions, legal challenges, and technical chart patterns all contribute to the prevailing sense of caution in the cryptocurrency market. Traders and investors are advised to exercise prudence and conduct their own research before making any financial decisions based on this information.