Key factors to watch in stock market: FOMC minutes, India-EU FTA talks, and TCS Q2 results.

The recent developments in the stock market have provided investors with much to ponder as we head into the new week. Last week ended positively for domestic benchmark equity indices following the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.50 percent during the MPC meeting between September 29 and October 1. The Sensex closed with a 0.43 percent gain at 81,207, while the Nifty also saw a 0.42 percent increase to end at 24,894.25.

Looking ahead, the current market sentiment appears cautiously bullish. Factors such as the RBI’s accommodative stance, stable crude prices, active domestic investment, and encouraging festive season trends due to recent GST reductions have all contributed to market stability. As macroeconomic indicators stabilize, attention will now shift towards the upcoming Q2 earnings reports and management insights, providing valuable insights into sector performance.

Foreign portfolio investors continued their selling trend in September, totaling Rs 27,163 crores through exchanges. However, there was a buying spree of equities worth Rs 3,278 crores in the primary market, showcasing a long-term trend. Year-to-date, the total FII selling stands at Rs 1,98,103 crores, with significant amounts liquidated in the past 21 months. Geojit Investments Limited’s Chief Investment Strategist, VK Vijayakumar, believes that as valuation differentials narrow and Indian earnings show improvement in FY27, FII selling activity may slow down in the future.

In the upcoming week, market participants will be closely monitoring key events that could influence market movements. One significant event is the upcoming Q2 earnings season kick-off. IT giant Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is set to reveal its September quarter results on October 9. In addition to the financial results, the board will also deliberate on the possibility of a second interim dividend for FY26, with payment details for eligible shareholders.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s release of FOMC meeting minutes on October 8 will be closely watched after the recent interest rate cut to 4%-4.25%. Meanwhile, the 14th round of India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks is scheduled for this week. Both sides are optimistic about concluding the negotiations by year-end, aiming for wider market access for Indian exports and increased EU exports to India in sectors like automobiles and liquor.

As IPO activity heats up, India anticipates a flurry of new listings totaling nearly Rs 45,000 crore ($5 billion) this October. Major companies like Tata Capital, LG Electronics, ICICI Prudential AMC, Pine Labs, and WeWork India are set to raise substantial funds through IPOs, making it one of the busiest IPO months in recent times. Additionally, the HSBC India Services PMI and Composite PMI data for September, set to be released on October 6, will offer valuable insights into the economic activities and growth prospects in the services sector.