Important Information for Farmers Ahead of October WASDE Report during Shutdown

The looming government shutdown threatens the release of the October USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report scheduled for Thursday, Oct. 9. The shutdown may result in the report being indefinitely postponed, mirroring the circumstances of the January 2019 shutdown’s impact on a WASDE report.

If the report is issued, farmers should be aware of vital information concerning the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, along with the key elements Grain Market Insider will be scrutinizing in the updated balance sheets. The previous month’s WASDE report indicated a 20 million bushel increase in the U.S. old-crop corn carryout, with old-crop soybean stocks remaining unchanged. The new-crop ending stocks estimate depicted a 7 million bushel decline for corn, a 10 million bushel rise for soybeans, and a 25 million bushel drop for wheat stocks.

Assuming the report proceeds, it would integrate objective survey data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, including harvest yield information, and minimize dependency on statistical modeling. Additionally, it would reflect findings from the September Grain Stocks report released on Tuesday, Sept. 30.

Regarding the corn market, the USDA’s export pace has remained robust over the past month. Export commitments for the 2025/2026 crop are at 35.3%, surpassing the five-year average of 28.8% at this juncture of the year. Conversely, corn use for ethanol production for this crop year has been sluggish compared to preceding months, aligning closely with last year’s corresponding period. The September Grain Stocks report unveiled corn stocks of 1.532 billion bushels, exceeding anticipated levels of around 1.337 billion.

There is a possibility that the new-crop corn yield estimate might be reduced in the October WASDE based on preliminary anecdotal reports. Over the past 28 years, the average downward yield adjustment in the October WASDE report has been 1.9 bushels per acre (bpa). Grain Market Insider anticipates slightly elevated exports, diminished feed demand, and stable ethanol production. The unexpected surge in September grain stocks may contribute to an increase in carry-in for the 2025/2026 crop. Given these potential modifications, Grain Market Insider refrains from predicting the direction of ending stocks.

Turning to soybeans, export sales commitments for the 2025/2026 crop year continue to lag historical averages, with sales standing at 23.7% of the prevailing estimate against a five-year average of 43.4%. The notable absence of the August crush report due to the government shutdown poses a challenge. The September Grain Stocks report, meanwhile, revealed soybean stocks of 316 million bushels, falling marginally short of the anticipated 323 million.

Predictions suggest that there might not be any significant adjustments to new-crop production. The average yield alteration on the October WASDE since 1993 stands at 1 bpa. The subpar September grain stocks estimate is likely to translate to a reduction in carry-in for the 2025/2026 crop. Moreover, export demand might be scaled down due to the persistently sluggish pace of commitments, leading to a plausible increase in ending stocks.

As for the wheat market, export sales for the 2025/2026 crop have remained steady since early July. The current sales pace, at 57.3% of the September WASDE estimate, exceeds the five-year average by 8.6 percentage points. Export inspections also exhibit resilience at 38.9% of the current estimate, outperforming the five-year average of 34.9%. The Small Grains 2025 Summary alludes to augmented wheat production across most categories, culminating in an overall estimate of 1.985 billion bushels compared to the previous mark of 1.927 billion.

Expectations point to a likely surge in overall production in the October WASDE, reflective of the small grains projections. This increased production might be counterbalanced by a spike in export demand.

Analyzing historical data from 2000–2023, Grain Market Insider’s internal research indicates heightened market volatility on the October WASDE report day for corn, soybeans, and wheat. For corn, the likelihood of a negative market reaction is estimated at 57%, with an average absolute change of 10¢. Soybeans are projected to provoke a positive market reaction 57% of the time, with an average absolute change of 20¢. Wheat, on the other hand, is expected to incite a 71% likelihood of a negative response, with an average gain of 16¢ following positive reactions and a 10¢ decrease upon negative reactions.