Mexico’s economy set to experience sluggish growth until 2026, according to Finance Week

Mexico’s economic outlook for the coming years is being projected as one of slow growth, according to recent reports from the IMF and Citi. These projections extend well into 2026, indicating a prolonged period of subdued economic performance. Various factors contribute to this stagnation, including weak domestic demand, trade uncertainties, and persistent inflation. All of these elements culminate in forecasts for 2024 and 2025 that fall significantly below historical averages, with only a modest recovery anticipated by 2026.

A key player in bolstering regional economic growth through strategic infrastructure investments is Banco Sabadell. The bank has allocated over US$300 million in financing for industrial and commercial real estate projects in Mexico over the past year. This substantial investment underscores Banco Sabadell’s commitment to supporting the development of critical infrastructure that drives economic expansion in the region.

The Financial Intelligence Unit (UIF) of Mexico’s Finance Ministry has seen a significant uptick in financial crime alerts, with a staggering 70.7% increase in the number of alerts received in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Virtual asset operations, particularly cryptocurrency transactions, are identified as the primary catalyst for this surge. In response to these alarming trends, authorities are stepping up oversight of crypto transactions to curb illicit financial activities.

In light of recent money laundering allegations against Mexican banks and the designation of Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations, major financial institutions are ramping up efforts to scrutinize and filter client portfolios. This proactive measure is part of a broader trend known as “de-risking,” which involves removing clients or businesses that pose financial, legal, or reputational risks. The aim is to enhance controls and prevent illicit financial activities within the banking sector.

Furthermore, Mexico’s antitrust regulator, COFECE, is investigating 21 banks and financial institutions for suspected collusion in fixing credit fees related to deferred credit card payments. This ongoing probe, initiated in 2022, focuses on potential anticompetitive practices like price-fixing and market manipulation in the deferred payments segment. Such investigations are crucial for maintaining fair market competition and safeguarding consumer interests in the financial sector.

Overall, the prevailing economic landscape in Mexico points towards continued challenges and uncertainties in the years ahead. Addressing issues of financial crime, money laundering, and anticompetitive practices will be paramount in fostering a more robust and resilient economy. By implementing stringent oversight measures, enhancing transparency, and promoting fair competition, Mexico can navigate these obstacles and work towards sustainable economic growth in the long term.