Singapore Market Outlook for June 2025: MSCI Index Reaches New High, Sector Trends and Major Risks Ahead

June 2025 saw Singapore’s stock market continue its upwards trend, with the MSCI Singapore Free SGD Index (SIMSCI) closing at 409.26 points, up 0.62% compared to the previous month. The index reached a new peak early in June, marking the second consecutive month of setting records. Despite this positive performance, investors are keeping a close eye on the expiration of the US tariff reprieve on July 9, a pivotal event expected to impact global market sentiments moving forward.

An analyst report projects a CY25F MSCI Singapore target of 411.7 points based on a 15x CY25F earnings multiple. The expectation is for the index to hover around this target, with market participants eagerly awaiting any developments on the US tariff front.

In terms of macroeconomic highlights, Singapore’s Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) for May 2025 dropped by 3.5% year-on-year, falling short of both internal and Bloomberg consensus forecasts. While electronic exports saw a modest 1.7% increase year-on-year, non-electronic exports suffered a 5.3% decline. Inflation measures showed a slowdown with core inflation easing to 0.6% and headline inflation moderating to 0.8% in May. Additionally, private home sales witnessed a 53% decrease month-on-month in May due to a lack of new project launches.

Industry sectors displayed varied performances in June, with the Real Estate, Services, and Utilities sectors leading the pack, while the Transport, Retail, and Staples sectors lagged behind. Notably, Utilities and Capital Goods reported substantial year-to-date gains of 24.09% and 24.25% respectively, while Consumer Staples experienced the most significant year-to-date loss at -7.42%.

Institutional investors mainly divested from Financials and Telcos in June, while favoring Industrials, REITs, Developers, and Tech. Retail investors, on the other hand, leaned towards Financials, Consumer Non-cyclicals, and Telcos, while reducing exposure to Industrials, Developers, and Tech.

Top company movers included Keppel Ltd (KEP) benefiting from sector momentum, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX) boosted by a pipeline of IPOs, and CapitaLand Investment Ltd/Sing (CLI) securing additional capital for strategic investments. Conversely, Wilmar International Ltd (WIL) faced challenges due to a legal case, and Singapore Airlines Ltd (SIA) experienced travel disruptions in the Middle East.

Amid ongoing corporate news, companies engaged in strategic acquisitions and capital moves to strengthen their positions in the market. ELITE acquired UK properties, CLI secured additional capital commitments, and Food Empire Holdings (FEH) demonstrated potential for further growth driven by positive earnings surprises.

On the technical analysis front, the MSCI Singapore Index aims for a limited upside in the near term, with indicators suggesting a flattening momentum and overbought conditions. Analyst coverage includes ratings based on total return over a 12-month period, with sectors and countries rated Overweight, Neutral, or Underweight according to market benchmarks.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Singapore’s stock market remains bullish. However, uncertainties loom as global markets await clarity on US tariff decisions in July. Real estate, utilities, and capital goods sectors are currently leading the charge.