Ramadan price increase: Is it a seasonal trend or market manipulation?

As the Muslim holy month of Ramadan approaches, the annual surge in the cost of essential commodities has once again become a concerning trend in 2025. From staples like coarse rice, soybean oil, and chickpeas to luxuries like dates and eggs, prices are on the rise, creating financial strain for many households. This increase in prices began almost a week before Ramadan officially started as consumers flocked to markets and neighborhood shops to stock up on traditional Ramadan supplies.

In Dhaka city, in the week leading up to Ramadan, prices for essential items like coarse rice, edible oil, chickpeas, dates, and eggs were higher than the previous year, causing budget constraints for low and fixed-income families. However, some relief was found in the stable prices of sugar, potatoes, onions, chicken meat, and non-brand flour. This price fluctuation before Ramadan is not a new occurrence, as data from previous years has shown similar trends.

Despite a significant increase in imports of soybean oil, chickpeas, and dates, prices for these items, which see a rise in demand during Ramadan, were still higher year-on-year before the fasting month began. While increased demand naturally leads to price spikes during this time, experts suggest that other factors contribute to the problem, including supply chain manipulation, corporate dominance, and weak government oversight.

The economy of Bangladesh has been battling high inflation and a devalued local currency, which has made imported goods more expensive. The rising prices of palm and soybean oil have also played a role in driving up costs. Experts argue that traders take advantage of the high demand during Ramadan to maximize profits, and a lack of government oversight creates an environment where prices can be manipulated.

Corporate control over key markets like sugar and edible oil by a few major companies can also impact prices. When these companies reduce imports or create an artificial supply shortage, prices increase. Retailers and traders also play a part in raising prices beyond justifiable limits when demand is high. Calls for better market monitoring and supply chain regulation by consumer associations have been made, but enforcement efforts often fall short of creating lasting change.

To address these issues, experts suggest implementing a digital market tracking system to monitor supply and demand in real time. This approach could allow for intervention before prices spiral out of control. However, skepticism remains about the government’s willingness to take bold regulatory action against powerful corporate groups that influence the market.

As the Ramadan price hike remains a challenging reality for the 18 crore people in Bangladesh, the impact of these price surges is felt most by lower-income households. While prices often stabilize after the first week of Ramadan according to historical data, concerns about corporate control and weak oversight persist. Consumers are left to adapt their budgets as they navigate the fluctuating prices of essential goods during this holy month.