CattleFax predicts continued dry weather in 2025 for agriculture sector

inued La Nina and drought conditions have producers wondering, How long can this last? Surely we’re due for some wet years, right? Surely El Nino is ready to come and stay a while, right? Not necessarily, Makens cautioned.“We live in a probability-based world,” he said. “We’re not betting on averages; we’re betting on probabilities. Let’s stop thinking of weather as an average. It’s a probability of occurrence.”And based on historical models and current conditions, Makens says, most probably weather outlook for 2025 includes, among other things, the following:

Warmer spring temperatures across most of the country, except for the Pacific Northwest
A dry spring in the Southwest and Plains, with hopeful optimism for good moisture in the Northwest
High temperatures throughout the summer in the West
A strong monsoon in the Southwest through the summer, but overall dry conditions throughout the country
A promising moisture outlook in the South and Southwest in late summer/early fall
Growing drought across the High Plains and Pacific Northwest, with the possibility for another intense wildfire season
Overall, continued droughty conditions throughout much of cattle country

Makens pointed out that while La Nina effects may be weaker in 2024 than in years past, even an extended neutral period – with neither La Nina nor El Nino taking the driver’s seat – will likely result in drought expanding.“Current data show the monsoon is likely to produce more moisture this year than last,” Makens said. “A strong enough monsoon can decrease precipitation across the central Corn Belt. … Somebody in the northern Corn Belt – whether it be Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin – somebody in that region is going be downright dry from mid-June through mid-July,” Makens said. “It’s bad timing. There’s going to be a pocket of dry there, and you’re going to hear the term ‘flash drought.’”So what does it all mean, and will the U.S. ever enjoy wetter-than-normal conditions again? Based on historical weather patterns tracked over the last century-plus, Makens believes that while the next year or two will likely be fairly dry, there is good climate news on the horizon.“I think it’s not just a La Nina this year; we do it again next year,” he said. “But we’re closing in on the end of this cycle and getting into a wetter phase within the next five to 10 years.”