Freight Market Outlook 2025: Strategies for Uncertainty and Change

Heading into 2025, the freight industry is gearing up for a year filled with challenges and changes. From ongoing diversions around Africa to potential labour strikes and looming tariff adjustments, the air and sea freight landscape is set to face a complex and dynamic environment.

As container traffic continues to be redirected via the Cape of Good Hope due to persistent attacks in the Red Sea, transit times are increasing and freight rates remain high. Even if hostilities cease, a significant adjustment period is expected as shipping lines reintroduce Red Sea routes. While carriers plan to implement new networks in February and March, additional changes to accommodate Suez transits may not happen until August. This transition phase could worsen congestion and delays temporarily, but once stabilised, the market should benefit from improved transit times and reduced rates.

Concerns about overcapacity arise with the reintroduction of capacity. Carriers are taking steps to mitigate this risk by scrapping older vessels, reducing charter fleets, implementing slow steaming, and utilizing blank sailings. The effectiveness of these measures in stabilizing rates will depend on demand levels throughout the year.

Labour strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports are still a possibility, but the incoming administration’s support for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) may decrease the likelihood of extended disruptions. If a strike does occur, it is expected to be brief, limiting significant rate increases or congestion. Tariffs, especially those on Chinese imports and goods from Canada and Mexico, could have a significant impact on trade flows. Shippers are already adjusting their strategies to avoid higher costs, which may disrupt seasonal patterns in demand and rates.

In the air freight sector, strong eCommerce demand from Asia drove growth in 2024, but 2025 brings challenges. Potential changes to US ‘de minimis’ thresholds and proposed tariffs could disrupt transpacific flows, while capacity constraints may ease if eCommerce demand slows. However, other pressures, such as the EU’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel mandate and potential US port strikes, could push demand for air freight higher.

With geopolitical risks, capacity challenges, and trade policy shifts on the horizon, 2025 will be a year of adjustment for the freight industry. Shippers should be prepared for fluctuating demand and rates, anticipate disruptions, and stay informed to ensure long-term success. For urgent shipments, Metro offers tailored airfreight, charter, and sea/air solutions to guarantee space and competitive rates on busy routes. Consider exploring how Metro’s carrier agreements could optimize your supply chain and save you money in 2025 by contacting Managing Director Andy Smith via email.