Trump considers using Pentagon AI program to regulate pricing of minerals in trade bloc

The Trump administration is considering utilizing a Pentagon-developed artificial intelligence initiative to establish benchmark prices for critical minerals as part of an effort to establish a global metals trading hub, according to three sources familiar with the plan. This move is in line with Vice President JD Vance’s proposal for the US and over 50 other countries to implement reference prices for critical minerals throughout the production process, supplemented by adjustable tariffs to maintain pricing transparency.

The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that the US Department of Defense’s Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN) AI metals program will determine these reference prices. Despite uncertainties surrounding the efficacy of AI technology in reshaping the trading landscape of critical minerals, the Trump administration is intent on influencing market pricing through this initiative.

Initiated by the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in 2023, the OPEN program aims to calculate the appropriate price of a metal while considering labor, processing, and other relevant costs, thereby mitigating alleged market manipulation by China.

Initially, the Trump administration is concentrating the AI pricing model of the OPEN program on four critical minerals: germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten. This focus is expected to expand to encompass additional minerals in the future, with data and technical support provided by S&P Global and Finnish data company Rovjok. Requested responses from the White House, Department of Defense, S&P, and Rovjok regarding this initiative have not been received.

This strategic move coincides with the administration’s broader use of AI technologies in various sectors, collaborating with entities like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google to enhance battlefield operations. This emphasis on AI deployment is particularly critical in the context of critically traded metals where US adversaries, such as China, wield significant influence due to their dominance in mineral mining and processing.

China’s status as the world’s premier producer of numerous critical minerals recognized by the US government has enabled it to distort market prices by manufacturing these minerals at a loss. This strategy has compelled Western competitors to discontinue operations, highlighting the urgency for the US to counter China’s market influence. Notably, Chinese authorities have consistently defended their minerals export policies, claiming compliance with World Trade Organization guidelines.

The OPEN program, slated to transition to the management of the non-profit organization Critical Minerals Forum (CMF) in the upcoming year, has primarily concentrated on thinly traded or non-traded metals since its inception. The CMF has indicated that the primary focus of the program lies in minerals that lack liquidity in the market, underscoring the necessity for strategic interventions to stabilize prices and prevent exploitative practices.