Challenges for NATO Food Security in the Era of Hybrid Threats

NATO has been historically concerned with the manipulation of food supplies for malicious purposes, such as blockades of aid, altering markets, and damaging physical infrastructure to achieve broader geopolitical objectives. However, in today’s world, these threats have evolved to include cyber and biological domains. Modern agriculture heavily relies on interconnected technologies like drones, sensors, and blockchain-based supply chains, which enhance efficiency but also introduce vulnerabilities for adversaries to exploit.

Food systems face growing risks from what NATO terms as hybrid threats, which involve a combination of cyber operations, economic coercion, disinformation, and sabotage to blur the distinction between war and peace. In light of this uncertain geopolitical environment, NATO is prioritizing resilience as a fundamental aspect of collective security. Yet, there is a lack of comprehensive examination of the entire spectrum of threats to food systems. Efforts to enhance resilience must include food security as a pivotal element, both within NATO nations and throughout the global supply chains they rely on.

The digital revolution in agriculture has seen rapid advancements but with varying levels of uptake. Technologies like automated feeding systems, precision agriculture, artificial intelligence-driven yield optimization, and logistics data offer potential benefits in terms of robustness and profitability for farmers irrespective of their geographical location. However, as NATO has frequently cautioned in other critical sectors, the increase in connectivity without commensurate security measures gives rise to new vulnerabilities, also seen in agrifood supply chains.

Cyber threats compound existing vulnerabilities in the food sector stemming from outdated infrastructure ill-equipped to handle modern cyber risks. Collaborative mechanisms between food producers, cybersecurity specialists, and national security entities are limited, reflecting the prevalent civil-military and public-private gaps that NATO aims to bridge through its resilience strategies. Moreover, vulnerabilities exist at various points along the food value chain, encompassing processing facilities, cold storage units, transportation, and distribution networks.

Disruptions caused by cyber incidents could have severe repercussions. For instance, a cyberattack manipulating storage temperatures could lead to the spoilage of substantial food quantities. Similarly, a ransomware attack on a major distributor might impede deliveries to crucial establishments like hospitals and schools. Recent years have witnessed notable cyberattacks on prominent producers and distributors, such as JBS Foods, Hood Dairy, Dole, and Sysco, resulting in substantial financial costs to restore operations. While some of these attacks have been linked to private entities, reports from the FBI confirm that foreign entities are endeavoring to disrupt the U.S. agriculture industry, potentially enabling adversarial states like Russia to exploit these vulnerabilities in the future.

The frequency of these attacks is on the rise. In 2024 alone, the U.S. encountered 40 cybersecurity incidents within the agrifood sector during the first quarter, a significant escalation from a decade earlier when incidents were minimal.