Positive projections for subsea vessel market in 2026

The subsea vessel market has seen a shift from record highs to a more cautious yet strong outlook in 2025. Although short-term activity and rates have decreased recently, the long-term demand driven by deepwater projects and global energy infrastructure remains robust. The market is keeping a close eye on how the influx of new vessels and ongoing corporate consolidations will impact competition and vessel availability in the upcoming years, with several key developments expected to influence the market in 2026.

For the first half of 2025, the subsea vessel market experienced a positive balance, with high dayrates for 150-ton and 250-ton SWL AHC crane vessels exceeding $60,000 and $80,000 per day, respectively. Notably, many high-specification vessels are now controlled by contractors rather than shipowners, leading to more fixtures between contractors rather than direct charters. Short-term fixtures are favored in this environment, which can result in significant dayrate volatility. While long-term contracts see a limited difference in rates, short-term and spot fixtures can differ up to four-fold.

The industry has seen the proposed merger between Subsea 7 and Saipem forming Saipem7, aiming to achieve cost synergies of $350 million per year and increase market dominance. This merger, expected to be finalized in the second half of 2026, will lead to revenue growth and bolster the company’s position as a leading EPC contractor. Additionally, contracting activity has remained strong with Tier1 EPCs securing major projects globally, particularly in growth regions like South America.

Furthermore, newbuild orders have increased significantly, especially for 150- and 250-ton SWL AHC crane vessels. With a substantial number of vessels in the order book, the supply side is growing rapidly. Most of the new vessels are being constructed in China on a speculative basis. Despite this increase in supply, the market does not foresee a collapse in dayrates but expects a wider spread based on vessel age and specification. Even with the softening market at the end of 2025, leading shipowners continue to report strong margins and are expected to see healthy financial performance.

Looking ahead, the market anticipates a potential softening in dayrates and utilization levels due to the influx of newbuilds. Project delays and conservative behavior from EPCs may contribute to short-term market softness. However, with a significant backlog and robust tender pipeline, a resurgence in activity and vessel intake is expected from 2026 to 2027. Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term fundamentals of the subsea vessel market remain strong, with a gradual shift towards deepwater and subsea infrastructure projects.