Stock Market Update: Federal Reserve to trigger two significant positive forces for S&P 500

Magnificent 7 to improve over the next four quarters and for the rest of the market to show similar momentum. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed estimates that GDP growth will hover at 4% for the third quarter, higher than the 3.8% seen the quarter before.

So far, the S&P 500 is up 16.7% this year, and one more rally could push the index to its third consecutive 20% annual return. Dating back to 1928, the benchmark index averages an 8.2% return following back-to-back 20% gains.

Not to fuel comparisons to the internet bubble, but that last time that happened was during the late 1990s, ahead of the dot-com crash.

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Market snapshotElsewhere📉Bitcoin fell more than 4% overnight. The crypto erased more than $150 billion in market cap late Sunday, with some estimates reporting $400 million worth of levered trades being liquidated within hours.🛍Consumers spent big money for Black Friday. AI-powered shopping tools helped drive a surge in online spending this weekend, with shoppers bypassing crowds from home with a record $11.8 billion in online spending.📈 Silver keeps breaking records. The metal has climbed more than 70% this year but a supply crunch could push its price even further from here.

Rapid-fireThe Nasdaq is coming off its first monthly loss since March but the Dow and S&P 500 are upGlobal travel was disrupted by a recall in Airbus A320 jetsMore than half of US homes lost value in the past yearStocks could secure a rare milestone in the final month of the yearPresident Trump declared Venezuelan airspace closed on SaturdayRoblox stock could be poised to rally as its new games draw billions of playersA veteran portfolio manager explains why Alphabet is the all-in-one AI compounder that he’ll bet on for years to come

I joined Schwab Network at the New York Stock Exchange the morning after Thanksgiving to discuss the outlook for stocks in 2026 and the data I mentioned in today’s newsletter.

On this day🗓December 1, 2008: The NBER officially declared that the US had actually been in a recession since December 2007, confirming the severity of the global financial crisis. The Dow dropped more than 7% after the news.

Last thing— # (#)📩 Want to get in front of 192,000+ investors who get this newsletter and the 350,000 professionals who can access it on Bloomberg Terminals? Reply to this email and tell us why we should work together.

About me📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, and Inc. Magazine. I write our flagship newsletter and host our show, Full Signal, to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data, and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].