Equity forecast for October 2025

Equity markets in India are poised to see a revival in October 2025. After experiencing significant volatility and uncertainty in both the global and domestic economies, experts are closely monitoring key factors such as US tariffs and corporate results for the second quarter of FY26 to gauge the upcoming market trends.

In discussions with industry stalwarts like Alok Singh, CIO of Bank of India Investment Managers, Kenneth Andrade, CIO of Old Bridge Asset Management, Prasanna Pathak, Deputy CEO of The Wealth Company, and Yogesh Patil, CIO (Equity) of LIC Mutual Fund, it is evident that the market outlook is heavily influenced by recent developments and expectations in the business landscape.

The month of September saw a blend of positive and negative factors shaping the equity markets. The major influencers were the US tariffs and the introduction of GST 2.0, with a consensus amongst experts on the significant impact of these events on market movements during that period.

Alok noted the heavy influx of information since August 15, correlating with increasing expectations around GST and its potential impact. The robust GDP growth rate of 7.8% in the previous quarter fueled optimism among market participants. While initial reactions to tariffs were intense, there is a growing realization that businesses will adapt to these changes over time.

Kenneth highlighted September as a month characterized by ongoing narratives, primarily driven by the GST rate cut and its implications on domestic consumption. Prasanna stressed the positive impact of the GST stimulus ahead of the festival season and favorable monsoon conditions, emphasizing the need for resolving issues related to tariffs and H-1B visa rule changes.

Yogesh expressed optimism regarding domestic stimuli and increased local investment participation in September, while acknowledging the impact of USD volatility on global markets, driving interest towards gold and silver investments.

Looking ahead to October, Alok emphasized the crucial role of tariffs and corporate earnings in influencing market dynamics, underscoring the need for clarity on trade agreements with the USA. Festival season consumption trends and corporate performance will be key determinants of market sentiment in the upcoming month.

Kenneth highlighted the importance of discretionary consumption figures and US policy developments in shaping market trends in October, anticipating modest corporate earnings due to the quiescent nature of the preceding quarter.

Prasanna acknowledged the uncertainty of short-term forecasts while stressing the significance of domestic demand fluctuations as a pivotal factor for market performance in the coming month. With varied expectations and market forces at play, October is poised to be a critical period for equity markets in India, defined by evolving dynamics and global economic factors.