Forecast of light vehicle sales growth in ASEAN region: Important insights

The ASEAN light vehicle production market is showing signs of growth this year, with an upward revision of approximately 22,000 units and a strong export momentum. In April, light vehicle sales across ASEAN countries increased by 6% compared to the previous year, except for the Philippines. This surge in sales has led to an improvement in the first-quarter expansion from 2% to 3% in 2025. Despite these positive indicators, the overall ASEAN market is predicted to remain stable throughout the year due to various factors such as geopolitical tensions, economic challenges, uneven consumer recovery, and a slow adoption rate of electric vehicles.

The sales forecast for light vehicles in ASEAN for the year is estimated to reach around 3.11 million units, which is essentially the same as the previous year’s volume. Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia have shown significant growth in light vehicle sales. Vietnam experienced a 35% increase in demand for light vehicles in April, driven by economic growth and governmental incentives for electric vehicles. Thailand also displayed positive trends, particularly in the demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrids. Indonesia saw an 8% year-over-year increase in sales, supported by Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like BYD, Chery, and Geely. The sales in Malaysia rose by 4%, primarily due to the performance of national brands like Proton and Chinese entrants like Jaecoo.

In contrast, the Philippines witnessed a decline in light vehicle volumes by 7% in April, attributed to consumers postponing vehicle purchases. However, the year-to-date growth remains positive at 6%, leading GlobalData to maintain its outlook for the year at 492,000 units. Despite this slight setback, the overall outlook for ASEAN remains consistent with last year’s forecast of 3.11 million units.

OEMs and logistics providers in ASEAN are adapting to changing market dynamics, including the rise in electric vehicle adoption, shifting supply chain flows, and the expansion of Chinese OEMs in the region. As the automotive industry faces challenges and opportunities, adaptation and innovation are essential for sustained growth in the ASEAN market. While GlobalData’s forecast for light vehicle sales in 2025 may be slightly lower than the previous year, it’s crucial to keep in mind that external factors and geopolitical changes can significantly impact the industry’s trajectory.