Thai Stock Market Forecast for March 14, 2025 – Thailand Business News
The situation in the Thai stock market appears challenging on March 14, 2025, as analysts predict a lackluster performance due to the absence of driving factors. A downward trend is anticipated for the SET Index, hovering between 1,150-1,180 points after experiencing a substantial drop below 1,200 points earlier in the month. This decline is a result of various global and domestic factors impacting investor sentiment adversely.
One of the primary concerns weighing on the market is the looming threat of a global trade war, particularly linked to the U.S. tariff policies under the potential scenario dubbed as “Trump 2.0.” These policies have the potential to disrupt Thailand’s export-driven economy, adding a layer of uncertainty for investors. Additionally, the slide in oil prices has further exacerbated the situation, affecting energy-related stocks and overall market confidence.
Internally, Thailand grapples with weak economic growth, high household debt amounting to 89.8% of GDP in Q2 2024, and disappointing corporate earnings for the previous year. Many listed companies failed to meet projections, leading the SET to its lowest point in five years. Despite these challenges, some analysts view this market condition as an opportunity for selective investment.
Bualuang Securities, for instance, suggests adopting a “Rock Bottom strategy,” which involves focusing on individual stocks that have already incorporated substantial downsides in their prices, regardless of the broader index level. The SET’s forward P/E ratio, which stood at 14.6 times in March 2024 (above the Asian average), implies that valuations may now be more attractive post-recent declines. Additionally, the depreciation of the Thai baht against the USD could benefit export-oriented companies, although volatility remains a concern.
External influences, such as U.S. market movements and global geopolitical uncertainties, continue to foster a risk-averse stance worldwide, limiting the upside potential for Thai equities. Despite a slight improvement in consumer confidence in February, it is unlikely to counterbalance the prevailing economic headwinds in the country.
In conclusion, the Thai stock market outlook for March 14, 2025, is one of caution, as the market is expected to remain subdued amidst trade war fears, falling oil prices, and local economic challenges. Nonetheless, opportunities exist for investors willing to focus on undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals, potentially nearing a bottom in certain sectors. Volatility is anticipated to persist, making a defensive, stock-picking strategy more favorable than broad index optimism.
FSS International Investment Advisory Securities (FSSIA) forecasts a potential rebound and sideways trading for the Thai market. While concerns persist, market analysts remain cautiously hopeful about emerging market growth opportunities and less trade dispute-vulnerable sectors. Monitoring global economic indicators and developments in U.S.-China negotiations is advised, as they could significantly impact market trends. Additionally, attention is drawn to central bank policies globally, with expectations for probable rate adjustments to combat economic slowdowns.
