Global surge in post-election large M&A deals sets pace for 2025
The global M&A landscape is poised for a resurgence in 2025 following a challenging period, as indicated by a substantial increase in completed transactions in the last year, especially in large deals valued above $1 billion. According to research conducted by WTW’s Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor (QDPM) in collaboration with the M&A Research Centre at Bayes Business School, there were 710 transactions valued over $100 million completed globally in the past 12 months. This represents a 15% increase from the previous year, with the most significant uptick observed in large deals between $1 billion and $10 billion, showing a 36% rise in completed transactions during the second half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Despite facing volatility and challenges, buyers continue to be motivated by strategic growth and the pursuit of new capabilities, with pent-up demand and strong balance sheets driving M&A activity. In North America, there was a 14% increase in completed deals in 2024 compared to the previous year, while Europe and Asia Pacific also saw growth in deal numbers. The improved financing conditions, stable interest rates, and a new US administration with relaxed regulatory scrutiny are contributing factors to the rebound in M&A activity, although dealmakers must navigate uncertainties such as new tariffs and policies that could impact inflation and supply chain stability.
Private equity’s growing influence on M&A is another significant factor, with firms under pressure to deploy large amounts of capital driving aggressive timelines and increasing competition for strategic deals. As investment focuses on enhancing competitive edge through core revenue functions and divesting non-core assets, buyers and sellers will need to navigate complex and costly transactions amidst rapid changes in the global M&A landscape.
Geopolitical factors also play a crucial role in shaping the M&A environment in 2025, with companies preparing for potential regulatory changes and policy shifts under a new administration. Sectors like finance and pharmaceuticals, where antitrust oversight may relax, are expected to see increased M&A activity. Moreover, regional conflicts and trade relationships, such as the tensions between the US and China, could introduce additional complexities that dealmakers will need to manage carefully throughout the year.
Overall, the outlook for M&A activity in 2025 is positive, driven by factors like improved financing conditions, strategic growth objectives, and the influence of private equity. However, dealmakers will need to navigate evolving geopolitical landscapes, regulatory uncertainties, and competitive pressures to ensure the success of complex transactions in the dynamic M&A environment of 2025.
