Texas Winter Energy Grid Forecast: What to Expect

old weather so their components don’t freeze up. “They also mandated similar things for the natural gas supply line that feeds a lot of these power plants. Some people are a little skeptical that that was accomplished to the same degree, but there certainly are new rules for that. They’ve also changed the market structure of the way that energy is bought and sold in the state so that there is more electricity in reserve in case the grid gets kind of tight.”

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, serves over 90% of Texans and has largely been isolated from the national grid, limiting electricity imports during times of crisis. Despite concerns from the public, Buchele said that setup has not really changed.
“We still are an energy island,” he said. “There are some small connections between our grid and other grids. But basically we run our own show here in Texas. There’s a proposal to build a new connection, but that would be years off. And there’s no real interest, it seems, from the state in unifying our grid with neighboring grids, despite federal proposals and legislation at the federal level.”

ERCOT has stated that Texans will likely be in a better position than last winter, but that doesn’t completely rule out the possibility of blackouts.
“Recently, the head of ERCOT mentioned that during peak energy demand this winter, there might be about a 9% chance of an energy emergency,” Buchele said. “This is where they might start taking emergency action to bolster the grid. Last year, he said it was around 12%. If we had another storm like we did in 2021, it’s a very different picture. ERCOT still says there’s about an 80% likelihood of rolling blackouts if we get a storm like that.”

However, a storm of that severity is not guaranteed. Despite the forecast for an overall warmer winter, there is still a chance of cold snaps.
“The meteorologist for ERCOT says that this winter has all the hallmarks of what we’ve seen in recent winters,” Buchele said. “On average, it’s warmer, but we could very likely see a major cold snap too. So you have to be prepared for that.”

Buchele recommended a few ways to prepare for potential grid challenges this winter.
“This isn’t just about electricity, but I would suggest everyone figure out how to shut off water to their house to prevent pipes from freezing and breaking. You want to be familiar with local emergency procedures and know where emergency shelters are located in case of extended power outages.”
He added, “Many people invested in generators last winter to improve their homes’ resilience, but that isn’t an option for everyone. Simple solutions like getting a power bank for your cell phone and stocking up on essentials can also make a big difference during an emergency.”