Key triggers for next week: Q4 results, inflation, and global economic data to shape market outlook

The upcoming week’s market forecast hinges on a combination of global and domestic factors, including Q4 results, inflation data, and tariff updates. Firms like IRDAI, HDFC Life, Infosys, Tata Elxsi, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank are gearing up to release their Q4 FY25 results. This information will shed light on companies’ financial performances and potentially impact market sentiments.

Domestically, attention will also be on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for March, set to be disclosed on April 15. The WPI serves as a key indicator of wholesale inflation trends, providing valuable insights into cost dynamics at the production level, which could influence future monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of India.

On the global front, the US is due to release the Industrial Production (YoY) figures for March on April 16. This data will offer a glimpse into the manufacturing sector’s strength and overall industrial activity. Subsequently, on April 17, all eyes will be on the Initial Jobless Claims report, a pivotal indicator of the labor market’s health, which can impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions based on any unexpected shifts in employment trends.

Meanwhile, China is set to unveil vital economic indicators on April 16, including Q1 GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter), Industrial Production (YoY) for March, and the Unemployment Rate for the same month. These reports will provide critical insights into China’s economic performance and its implications on global markets.

The market experienced a mixed week from April 7 to April 11, with Nifty closing down by 0.33% at 22,828 and Sensex down by 0.28% at 75,157. Market volatility was primarily driven by tariff concerns, with Nifty hitting a low of 21,743 during the week but subsequently mounting a robust recovery. Among sectoral indices, the realty sector endured the most significant decline, while FMCG stocks showcased resilience.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) maintained their selling streak, unloading roughly Rs 20,911 crore in the cash segment. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offered some support by infusing around Rs 21,955 crore. Analysts like Puneet Singhania from Master Trust Group emphasized caution due to the prevailing uncertainty in the market, advising traders to refrain from aggressive long positions until volatility eases and technical strength stabilizes.

Bajaj Broking Research highlighted the criticality of the week from April 12 to April 19, 2025, emphasizing the impact of upcoming inflation, industrial activity, and employment reports across major economies on market dynamics. These data sets will shape expectations regarding future rate trajectories and economic resilience in the evolving landscape of 2025.