How will CSX stock perform after reporting earnings?

CSX Corporation is preparing to release its earnings report on April 16, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $0.37 per share on revenue of $3.46 billion, signaling a decline from the previous year’s figures of $0.46 per share and $3.68 billion in sales. The anticipated decrease in performance is attributed to the ongoing weakness in coal freight and a generally softer average revenue per carload. Despite the projected decline, CSX stock has historically reacted positively to earnings reports, with a track record of experiencing one-day positive returns in 65% of instances over the last five years, with a median return of 2.6% and a maximum return of 4.3%.

With a current market capitalization of $54 billion, CSX has demonstrated operational profitability with $15 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, $5.4 billion in operating profits, and $3.5 billion in net income. While post-earnings stock performance will largely depend on how the results align with investor expectations, a thorough analysis of historical data can be beneficial for event-driven traders looking to capitalize on market movements. By understanding the historical odds and relationships between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings, traders can make informed decisions on trading strategies.

Looking at CSX’s historical performance, positive one-day returns were observed in about 65% of instances over the last five years, with 13 out of 20 data points showing positive post-earnings returns. This percentage increases to 67% when considering data from the last three years. The median of positive returns stood at 2.6%, while negative returns had a median of -3.2%. Additionally, data on observed five-day and twenty-one-day returns post-earnings further shed light on historical performance trends.

Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can help traders develop more informed strategies. By identifying pairs of returns with the highest correlation, traders can position themselves for potential gains based on historical patterns. For example, if one-day and five-day returns show a strong correlation, traders can consider long positions for the next five days following positive post-earnings returns. Analyzing correlation data based on both five-year and three-year history can provide valuable insights for traders looking to optimize their trading strategies.

For traders looking for systematic strategies and rules-based wealth management, partnering with firms like Empirical Asset Management can offer valuable guidance. By combining high-quality picks with active hedges, systematic portfolio strategies can help investors navigate market volatility and optimize their investment decisions. Leveraging data-driven insights and historical performance trends can empower traders to make informed decisions and capitalize on market opportunities.