Thai Stock Market Forecast – Thailand Business News

The Thai stock market is facing a challenging outlook due to a combination of domestic and international factors. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index has been under pressure, with the FSSIA anticipating a sideways to downward trend driven by investment slowdowns and the impact of U.S. tariffs. The energy sector has particularly contributed to the SET Index’s struggles, with support levels at 1,140-1,155 points and resistance at 1,165-1,173 points.

As of April 5, 2025, the Thai stock market has been impacted by various developments, including Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The SET Index experienced a significant drop on April 4, with reports indicating a 3.18% decrease to 1,125.37 points, the lowest level in over five years. This decline was triggered by news of a U.S. 37% tariff on Thai imports, which was slightly higher than previously reported. The overall slump in the Asian market also influenced this decline, with sectors like food and electronics dragging down the index. Year-to-date, the SET has seen a decrease of 16-20%, making it one of the worst-performing major indices globally, despite Thailand’s 3% GDP growth in Q3 2024.

FSSIA has provided predictions for the SET Index, suggesting that downside risks may persist if the index cannot maintain a support level of 1,155 points. Resistance levels are expected between 1,165 and 1,173 points, with support projected at 1,140-1,155 points. On the previous trading day, the SET Index closed at 1,161.81 points, down 0.93%, with a trading value of THB 41.06 billion.

Several key influences have contributed to the current state of the Thai stock market. Trump’s tariffs, especially the 36-37% tariff on Thai exports, have had a significant impact on the economy. The U.S.’s move targeted Thailand’s trade surplus, affecting industries like auto parts and agriculture. Stocks linked to exports have been hit hard, resulting in heavy sell-offs, particularly in large-cap companies. Additionally, foreign investors have withdrawn substantial funds from the market, contributing to a collapse in confidence. Domestic challenges, including a failed rescue plan and missed earnings forecasts by listed companies, have further added to the stock market’s woes.

Looking ahead to the short-term outlook for April-May 2025, analysts are projecting a sideways to downward trend for the SET Index. If the index drops below 1,150, it could indicate vulnerability, potentially leading to a further decline. The possibility of a deeper slide to 1,100 or lower is on the horizon, driven by the fallout from tariffs and weaknesses in the energy sector. While there is hope for a rebound, it largely depends on the outcome of U.S.-Thai trade talks and the introduction of support measures to stabilize the market.

In the broader outlook for the rest of 2025, uncertainties remain. Pre-tariff forecasts were cautiously optimistic, but the ongoing trade wars have clouded the economic landscape. Analysts predict that unless there are significant domestic boosts, such as the implementation of the Entertainment Complex law, the SET may continue to experience sideways trading. Various financial institutions and investment firms have provided insights into potential scenarios, emphasizing the importance of monitoring external factors like tariffs and global trade tensions to navigate the market successfully.