Brokers project optimistic outlook for VLCCs – Poten and Partners

In recent reports, New York’s Poten & Partners and London’s Gibson Shipbrokers discuss the potential improvements in the VLCC market. The shifting landscape of Iranian oil sanctions and potential increases in US oil exports are key topics highlighted by the two brokerage firms. Poten addresses the impact of the US Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) on oil shipments between specific countries, including Russia and Iran. OFAC has been steadily adding oil tankers to the sanctions list for these countries, reducing the number of available non-sanctioned vessels.

The implementation of sanctions on tankers carrying oil from Iran and Russia has significantly affected the VLCC market, with the sanctions list growing since the start of 2024. This has led to a decrease in available tankers for transporting crude oil from these sanctioned countries. The intervention of OFAC has created uncertainty in global oil trade, particularly concerning Iran and Russia, major players in the crude oil market.

On the other hand, Gibson Shipbrokers shed light on the potential rise in US oil exports under the current administration, led by President Trump. This increase in oil exports could have a positive impact on the VLCC market, potentially offsetting the challenges posed by the Iranian and Russian sanctions. The brokerage firm’s analysis suggests that the US could play a crucial role in shaping the future growth of the VLCC market and global oil trade.

The conflicting factors of Iranian sanctions and potential US oil export growth present a complex scenario for the VLCC market. While sanctions have limited the pool of available tankers for transporting oil from Iran and Russia, the prospect of increased US oil exports offers a glimmer of hope for the market’s recovery. The interplay between these factors underscores the volatility and unpredictability inherent in the maritime industry, specifically in the crude oil transportation sector.

In conclusion, the market reports from Poten & Partners and Gibson Shipbrokers provide valuable insights into the current challenges and opportunities facing the VLCC market. The impact of Iranian oil sanctions and the potential for increased US oil exports are key considerations for stakeholders in the maritime industry. Navigating these dynamics will require a deep understanding of geopolitical factors, regulatory changes, and market trends to capitalize on emerging opportunities and mitigate risks in the VLCC sector.