Key Triggers for Next Week: Holi Break and Trump Tariff Policy Impact on Stock Market
The upcoming week’s market outlook is poised to be influenced by a variety of factors, both domestic and international. Key triggers for the next week include India’s retail inflation data, FIIs activities, dollar to Rupee movement, and Trump’s tariff policy. Scheduled for release on March 12, India’s retail and wholesale inflation data will be closely monitored by market participants. Additionally, it is important to note that the stock market will remain closed on March 14 in observance of the Holi festival.
In the previous week, the stock market experienced significant gains following three consecutive weeks of decline. Nifty saw a rise of approximately two percent, closing at 22,552.50, while the Sensex also rose by 1.55 percent to 74,332.58. Notably, the smallcap and midcap segments witnessed strong buying activity during the March 3 – 7 trading sessions. The Nifty Midcap 100 index surged by 2.66 percent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index rallied by 5.47 percent.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, mentioned that the domestic market staged a recovery from oversold levels. However, he emphasized that sustainable upward momentum would depend on improved corporate earnings and reduced tariff volatility. Among the sectoral indices, metal, energy, media, and PSE segments were top performers during the week. Noteworthy gains were seen in Nifty Metal (8.61 percent), Nifty Media (7.36 percent), Nifty PSE (7.36 percent), and Nifty Energy (5.90 percent).
Furthermore, a decline in the US dollar index, along with lower crude oil prices and the Indian Rupee gaining strength against the dollar, provided additional support to equities. Notably, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) recorded net outflows of Rs 15,501 crores in the cash segment, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) injected Rs 20,950 crores, contributing to market stability.
Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, highlighted that Nifty rebounded by nearly two percent from its 100-week EMA at 22,051. He outlined that the immediate resistance level is at 22,700, aligning with the 21-day EMA. Singhania suggested that a sustained move above this level could propel Nifty towards 23,100.
In conclusion, the market outlook for the upcoming week is contingent on various critical factors, including retail inflation data, FIIs activities, and the impact of Trump’s tariff policy. Market participants are advised to stay informed and keep abreast of the latest developments to make well-informed investment decisions.
