AHDB: Wheat production expected to recover in 2025, despite high imports
An agricultural report by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) indicates that following a reduced cereal harvest in 2024, the United Kingdom is leaning more heavily on imported grains for the 2024/25 marketing season. Notably, wheat production in the UK saw a decline of 20% in 2024 compared to the previous year, leading to an increased dependence on imported grains, specifically those of higher protein milling quality. Projections suggest that wheat imports could reach 2.75 million tonnes in the 2024/25 period, marking a 13% increase from the previous year.
While some improvement is anticipated in the size of the UK wheat crop in 2025, full recovery to normal levels is not expected due to ongoing weather challenges in certain regions. If the Early Bird Survey’s forecasted UK wheat area in 2025 is combined with an average yield over the past five years, the total UK wheat production in 2025 is anticipated to reach 12.5 million tonnes, indicating a 12% increase from the previous year but still falling short of the five-year average of 13.9 million tonnes.
The UK’s oilseed rape (OSR) production faced challenges in 2024, seeing a substantial 32% decrease to 824 thousand tonnes, attributed to reduced planted area and disappointing yields. The AHDB Early Bird Survey estimated the UK OSR area for the 2025 harvest at 244 thousand hectares, a 17% decrease from the previous year and the lowest in over four decades. Anticipated lower OSR areas across England suggest that UK OSR production in 2025 could range from 643 to 912 thousand tonnes, indicating an increased reliance on imports to fulfill domestic rapeseed demand. Import levels for rapeseed in the 2024/25 season are projected to rise to 875 thousand tonnes, up from 743 thousand tonnes the previous year.
The agricultural market has seen a rise in oilseed rape prices in recent times due to limited global and domestic supply. Prices for oilseed rape delivered into Erith surged by over 23% between January 2024 and January 2025. Despite these price increases driven by tight market conditions, potential competition from Brazil’s soybean production could hinder further price escalation in the medium to long term.
Both the cereal and oilseed markets are facing impacts from global weather patterns, particularly production concerns in major exporting countries such as the EU and the Black Sea region. Adverse weather conditions and geopolitical instability are expected to keep cereal and oilseed production in these regions below usual levels, potentially supporting global prices in the short to medium term and translating to domestic price increases.
Looking ahead, it is crucial for UK farmers to closely monitor market conditions, as factors like global weather patterns, trade dynamics, and competition from key exporters may influence price fluctuations. The grain and oilseed markets in the UK are likely to experience volatility in 2025, driven by changing supply and demand dynamics both locally and internationally. While short-term outlooks suggest upward price trends for rapeseed due to limited supply, broader market forces like soybean exports from Brazil could apply downward pressure on long-term pricing movements. Maize supplies from South America and the US could contribute to lower cereal prices in the long term, alongside concerns regarding the economic slowdown of major importers.