Outlook for crane market in 2025: Can we expect a rebound?

In 2024, the construction equipment industry faced a challenging year as sales declined by 10 – 20 per cent in many countries. Off-Highway Research’s managing director, Chris Sleight, noted that most global markets experienced decreases, with India being an exception. The surge in equipment sales during the pandemic was primarily driven by low interest rates and government stimulus measures, which eventually came to an end. Sleight highlighted the negative impact of high interest rates on housebuilding in Europe, contributing to the decline in sales of construction equipment, particularly compact machines.

The decrease in housebuilding resulted in reduced sales, particularly affecting smaller equipment types that are sold in larger quantities, creating a noticeable downturn in the market overall. The decline in equipment sales was closely tied to interest rates, as Sleight pointed out that most equipment purchases are typically financed rather than purchased outright, making interest rates a vital factor in the cost of acquiring new machinery.

However, there is optimism for the industry as central banks have begun to gradually lower interest rates. The European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve, and China’s central bank have all taken steps to reduce rates to support economic growth. With expectations of further rate cuts, fleet owners have been delaying purchases, waiting for more favorable conditions to invest in new machines.

Looking ahead to 2025, while 2024 experienced a significant drop in sales, the global equipment market has maintained its strength. Sleight predicted a potential upturn by the middle of the year, noting that demand could quickly escalate. The cyclical growth trend of the market typically follows a pattern of around 3% per year, with an anticipated recovery in mature markets and strong demand for compact machines.

In emerging markets driven by infrastructure development, there is a forecast for increased demand for larger machines, especially in mining economies where commodity prices remain robust. Chinese construction equipment manufacturers have shifted their focus to exports, particularly in Southeast Asia, after a slowdown in the domestic real estate market. Despite their success in emerging markets, penetrating regions like Europe and North America poses challenges due to customer preferences for established OEMs and distribution networks.

Overall, despite the setbacks of 2024, the construction equipment industry remains robust, with housing shortages in Europe and North America and ongoing infrastructure requirements indicating a positive outlook for the crane industry. The market fundamentals are strong, and with the right impetus, an uptick in demand is expected to begin.