Sayer predicts strong M&A activity in 2025 for DOB Energy
Sayer Energy Advisors annually releases their forecast for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the Canadian upstream oil and natural gas industry for the upcoming year. Looking back at 2024, the total value of M&A transactions in the Canadian oil and gas sector reached approximately $19.4 billion, showing a significant increase from 2023’s $16.5 billion. In January 2024, Sayer Energy Advisors predicted that M&A activity for the year would decline compared to 2023, estimating it to be in the range of approximately $12.0 billion, with a notable portion of the total value attributed to corporate transactions. Corporate deals accounted for around 23% or $4.5 billion in total transaction value in 2024, compared to 45% in 2023.
Interestingly, there were four M&A deals in 2024 valued at over $1 billion, which collectively represented $14.5 billion, making up roughly 75% of the total transaction value for the year. All four major transactions occurred in the latter half of 2024, with two being corporate transactions amounting to $2.4 billion, and the other two being property transactions totaling $12.1 billion. Noteworthy was Canadian Natural Resources Limited’s acquisition of assets from Chevron Canada Limited for $8.8 billion, marking the largest transaction of the year. Additionally, Ovintiv Inc. announced its planned purchase of assets from Paramount Resources Ltd. for about $3.3 billion in another significant multibillion-dollar deal in 2024.
Among the notable corporate transactions of the year were Tourmaline Oil Corp.’s acquisition of Crew Energy Inc. for $1.1 billion and Vermilion Energy Inc.’s impending takeover of Westbrick Energy Ltd. for just under $1.1 billion. Tourmaline Oil Corp. continued its streak as a billion-dollar acquirer since 2023 when it bought out Bonavista Energy Corporation for around $1.5 billion.
Overall, the trends observed in 2024, with increased transaction values compared to the previous year and a notable focus on corporate transactions, may offer insights for the upcoming year. As Sayer Energy Advisors gear up to release their 2025 M&A outlook, the industry awaits to see if the momentum of the past year will continue, and what new developments and trends may shape the Canadian oil and gas M&A landscape in the coming months.