Copper Concentrates Market Outlook 2025: Challenges Ahead
In the copper concentrates market, 2025 is forecasted to bring continued challenges due to tight supply conditions, driving treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) to remain low throughout the year. Industry experts suggest that the average spot TC is expected to be around $10.7 per tonne annually, with monthly averages approaching $20 per tonne by the end of 2025.
Traditionally, TC/RCs decrease in tight markets and increase when supplies are abundant. Fastmarkets observed a significant drop in its weekly copper concentrate TC/RC index, falling into negative territory for the first time in over a decade. This trend is expected to persist in 2025, leading to uncertainties and risks for market players.
Market participants are adapting to the changing landscape by exploring new ways to secure copper concentrates supplies. With varying annual TC/RCs terms, smelters are looking for less fixed-volume contracts and more flexible pricing structures, including spot index pricing. Suppliers and buyers are renegotiating terms to better align with market conditions.
The reliance on copper scrap and intermediate products for production support is on the rise, especially in China where smelters are exploring alternative raw materials. Despite government encouragement to use secondary materials like copper scrap, challenges remain due to market volatility and policy uncertainties. Concerns over potential tariff hikes between China and the US are also impacting the import of scrap materials, further complicating supply dynamics.
The future of the copper concentrates market in 2025 is marked by both challenges and opportunities, as industry players navigate shifting global conditions to ensure a steady supply of this essential raw material.
