Impact of Climate Change on Dunkelflaute Events in Central Europe: Insights from Weather Service
According to Germany’s meteorological service (DWD), there is no imminent threat of Dunkelflaute events causing a significant decrease in wind power output in the country. Dunkelflautes, which are characterized by low wind and solar power generation due to reduced daylight time, are more likely to happen during autumn and winter when high-pressure systems impact the wind patterns in central Europe.
While Dunkelflautes can challenge Germany’s goal of transitioning to 100 percent renewable energy, the DWD’s analysis shows that climate change is not expected to increase the frequency of these events. The historical data since 1950/51 indicates that, on average, there are about 8.2 days per year when such weather patterns occur, with occasional outliers like in the winter of 2011/12 when there were 23 days of ‘High Central Europe’ pattern.
Interestingly, when wind output is low in Germany, it tends to be higher in neighboring regions like Scandinavia. The DWD observed that during a recent Dunkelflaute, Sweden saw record wind power output levels exceeding 30 percent in their energy mix. This balancing act of wind patterns across Europe highlights the interconnected nature of renewable energy sourcing.
It’s crucial for Germany to manage these weather-related challenges as the country moves towards greater reliance on renewables. The DWD’s 2018 analysis emphasized the need for cross-border collaboration to navigate situations where renewable power production drops significantly for extended periods. By investing in weather forecasting and macro weather pattern analyses, Germany can secure a stable transition to a sustainable energy system.
