New Zealand Property Market Outlook for 2025

As we head into 2025, there’s a mix of good news and challenges shaping New Zealand’s property market. CoreLogic NZ’s recent report sheds light on how lower mortgage rates and persistent affordability concerns are influencing the landscape.

Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic NZ’s lead property economist, highlighted the impact of declining mortgage rates and debt-to-income ratio restrictions. Lower rates could boost sales and steady property values, but Davidson cautions that challenges like affordability issues and a shaky job market persist.

While there’s hope for a modest recovery next year, with property sales volumes possibly increasing by 10-15% and national values edging up by about 5%, current conditions show a 9% increase in property sales from the previous year.

But don’t let that slight uptick fool you. Sales are still below the norm, reflecting cautious buyers navigating a market with elevated listings. This abundance of listings, reaching 30,150 in November, gives buyers some leverage in negotiations, but affordability concerns and buyer hesitancy linger.

The regional property market paints a varied picture, with Wellington, Auckland, and Hamilton seeing declines, while Christchurch and Dunedin show modest gains. First-time buyers are taking advantage of lower prices and reduced competition, making up a quarter of November’s property purchases.

On the rental front, growth is sluggish, hovering around 1% annually, and rents in places like Auckland remain flat. Davidson attributes this slowdown to a softening demand for rentals, partly due to a drop in net migration and more rental listings hitting the market.

Heading into 2025, New Zealand’s property market appears complex, with diverse regional trends and market fluctuations. A wealth of listings will give buyers choices, but sellers will need to price realistically for timely transactions. As the economic landscape shifts, stakeholders will need to navigate carefully through the market’s intricacies, balancing local and broader economic factors.

For the latest insights and updates on New Zealand’s housing market, consider checking out CoreLogic’s monthly Housing Chart Pack. Stay informed on the latest mortgage news by subscribing to our free daily newsletter.