Rice Prices Trends 2025: Impact of Large Harvest and End to India Export Ban
In 2025, rice prices are expected to decrease due to a large harvest and the end of India’s export ban. This change is projected to impact rice exports from other countries like Pakistan, which are estimated to decline by 12.3% year over year. The reason behind this decline is India re-entering the market, putting pressure on prices for both non-basmati and basmati varieties.
India’s decision to lift the export ban on white rice and remove the export duty on parboiled rice, along with a bumper kharif harvest, is predicted to flood the global rice market. These factors are likely to push prices down in other rice-producing countries in the first quarter. According to S&P Global’s latest commodity report, the market will remain bearish until the first quarter of 2025, with India taking the lead in rice exports after January/February.
Despite the bumper crop supply, local demand in India is expected to pick up in the upcoming year, potentially stabilizing the market. The Minimum Support Price (MSP) set by the government to ensure fair compensation for farmers is anticipated to keep prices bullish. Myanmar’s white rice exports are predicted to fall due to lower crop productivity, while Thailand’s rice export prices may decrease in March and April with the arrival of the new crop and subdued demand.
The Vietnamese rice export market is expected to see constrained supply until March and increased supply starting in February due to significant arrivals from the winter/spring harvest in April. Fragrant rice demand is expected to remain strong, especially from the Philippines and Africa, while white rice prices may soften due to competition from India and Thailand starting in February.
With the US anticipating changes in the rice market due to the new administration, including tariffs on Chinese and other imports, the rise in Indian rice exports could introduce cheaper varieties, potentially stabilizing or lowering US prices. In South America, a bumper crop is anticipated in 2025, with lower prices stimulating domestic consumption and export opportunities.
For Indonesia and the Philippines, rice imports are expected to decrease due to El Nino, with government support aimed at boosting local production. In West Africa, oversupply and low prices from India’s bumper harvest may impact demand in South Africa and Thailand. Overall, the global rice market is expected to experience changes in response to India’s re-entry into the export market and the effects of a large harvest.
