Key Factors Farmers Should Be Aware of Before the December WASDE Report
The December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is on the horizon, set to release on Tuesday, Dec. 10. Let’s dive into what farmers need to know for the corn, soybean, and wheat markets before the report drops.
Starting with the corn market, the November WASDE report gave it a boost by coming in below expectations with a national average yield of 183.1 bushels per acre and a lower carryout number of 1.938 billion bushels. Looking ahead to December, experts suggest that USDA export sales projections might be on the low side, with strong demand for ethanol driving optimism for a bump in corn usage estimates. This could potentially lead to a drop in corn ending stocks, which could be positive for prices.
Shifting to the soybean market, the USDA surprised last month by dropping 2024/2025 soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels due to a lower yield estimate. There’s an expectation that yield will remain unchanged for the upcoming report, and strong soybean oil exports might prompt adjustments that could lower ending stocks and ease some supply concerns.
As for the wheat market, last month saw a minor revision to U.S. wheat ending stocks, primarily due to increased imports. While there’s not much chatter on expectations for this month, recent export sales have been robust. Although the market insiders anticipate minor changes, if any, to the wheat market’s balance sheet.
In terms of historical patterns and statistical perspective, data suggests that the December WASDE report day tends to be a mixed bag of reactions, with corn leaning towards positivity, soybeans evenly split, and wheat having a more negative leaning. Corn’s December report typically closes positively about 59% of the time, with soybeans ranking slightly higher in volatility than corn. Wheat market volatility ranks eleventh, with historical reactions showing a higher chance of a negative close.
Remember, commodity trading comes with significant risks, so be sure to carefully consider your financial situation before making decisions based on market reports. Always remember that past movements don’t guarantee future outcomes. Stay informed, stay safe, and trade wisely.
