Oil market outlook for 2025: Predictions for crude prices
In 2025, the International Energy Agency predicts that global oil supply will outpace demand by more than 1 million barrels per day. This estimate is based on the assumption that OPEC+ will continue with its current production cuts in the coming years.
Countries outside of OPEC+, such as the United States, Canada, and Guyana, are expected to contribute to the surplus through increased production. This could potentially challenge OPEC+’s ability to keep the market in check.
Following the post-pandemic demand recovery, growth rates are anticipated to slow down. The economic deceleration in China is particularly worrisome for demand forecasts and may limit any significant increase in prices.
Major financial institutions have put forth conservative price predictions for 2025. Goldman Sachs analysts foresee Brent crude oil averaging $76.00 per barrel. On the other hand, J.P. Morgan takes a more pessimistic view, projecting Brent at $73.00 per barrel and WTI at $64.00, considering ample market supply and moderate demand growth expectations.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects that rising global inventories will push prices down. Their analysis suggests Brent could average $74.00 per barrel in the latter part of 2025. Even with these projections, unforeseen geopolitical events and decisions made by OPEC+ could create significant price swings.
In the realm of energy trading, strategies for oil in 2025 will need to adapt to potential supply gluts and pricing pressures. Traders should pay close attention to OPEC+ compliance with production agreements, as any deviation could lead to price drops. It is also essential to analyze key support and resistance levels to identify optimal entry and exit points in the market.
Geopolitical changes will continue to play a pivotal role in oil markets, with U.S. energy policy shifts capable of influencing global supply dynamics and price fluctuations. Chinese demand growth will be crucial for market stability. Furthermore, keeping an eye on the pace of energy transition and electric vehicle adoption could impact demand projections, albeit marginally in the context of 2025.
