Trump Tariffs Could Increase Grocery and Liquor Prices, Impacting Beef, Pork, Avocados, and Tequila

U.S. shoppers may soon see a rise in prices for avocados, strawberries, and other fresh produce next year if President-elect Donald Trump goes through with his plans to impose tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. These two countries are the main suppliers of farm products to the United States, with imports valued at nearly $86 billion last year. Duties on their food shipments could have significant financial and operational impacts on U.S. supplies, underlining the nation’s reliance on its neighbors for feeding its population.

President Trump announced his intention to sign an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all products coming from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office to address illegal drugs and migrant flows into the United States. This move could lead to food shortages and higher prices at grocery stores and restaurants, impacting availability and pricing of items like avocados, fruits, and vegetables, according to agricultural economists and industry executives.

About two-thirds of U.S. vegetable imports and half of fruit and nut imports come from Mexico, with significant percentages of avocados, orange juice, and strawberries among the imports. The potential tariffs could not only affect fresh produce but also impact the supply of other key items like beer, tequila, and meat, leading to price hikes and potential shortages in these categories as well.

The implementation of tariffs could disrupt cattle and pork migration from Mexico to the U.S., affecting the beef and meat supply chain. While U.S. producers might benefit from reduced competition in the market, importers and meat processors may face additional costs that could trickle down to consumers, causing meat prices to rise. Tariffs could also impact shipments of beef, dairy cattle, and hogs between the U.S. and Canada, affecting producers in both countries.

The threat of tariffs could be a negotiating tactic ahead of the renegotiation of the USMCA trade deal in 2026, according to experts. However, a long-term imposition of tariffs might have repercussions, making the U.S. appear as an unreliable trading partner and prompting importers to seek alternative sources for their goods.

In summary, the potential tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada could have far-reaching effects on the food and beverage industry, leading to price increases, potential shortages, and disruptions in the supply chain. Consumers might need to brace themselves for changes in grocery bills and availability of certain products if these tariffs are put into effect.