November 2024 Update: Rise in U.S. Consumer Confidence and Labor Market Optimism

U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Improvement in November 2024

In the month of November, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose to 111.7 (1985=100), an increase of 2.1 points from October’s 109.6. This boost in consumer confidence was driven by a surge in the Present Situation Index, which reflects consumer evaluations of current business and labor market conditions and rose by 4.8 points to 140.9. Additionally, the Expectations Index, based on the short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, saw a modest uptick of 0.4 points to 92.3. It is noteworthy that this figure comfortably sits above the threshold of 80, a range that typically indicates a possible recession on the horizon. These statistics are based on data collected through November 18, 2024.

Chief Economist at The Conference Board, Dana M. Peterson, remarked that “Consumer confidence continued to improve in November, reaching its highest level in the past two years.” The increase was primarily fueled by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market. Consumers showcased significantly more optimism about future job availability, topping levels not seen in almost three years. Meanwhile, consumer expectations about future business conditions remained stable, with a slightly less positive outlook on future income.

Looking at specific demographics, consumers under 35 years old experienced a significant surge in confidence in November, while confidence among the 35 to 54 age group dipped slightly following a strong surge in the previous month. Among income brackets, all reported higher confidence except for those at the very top (earning over $125K) and bottom (earning less than $15K). In terms of householders, individuals under 35 and those earning over $100K were the most confident on a six-month moving average basis.

It was observed that the proportion of consumers anticipating a recession within the next year decreased further in November, marking the lowest level since the question was first posed in July 2022. Additionally, while there was a slight drop in consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Current Financial Situation, optimism for their finances over the next six months reached a new peak. Notably, these measures are not factored into the calculation of the Consumer Confidence Index®.

Furthermore, consumers displayed growing optimism about the stock market, with 56.4% expecting stock prices to rise over the coming year. This figure represents another record high for this indicator, with only 21.3% of consumers anticipating a decline in stock prices. The positivity regarding stock market performance was notable in November.