Livestock Marketing Expert Insights on Current Cattle Market Conditions
The Southeast Wyoming Beef Symposium and Trade Show recently took place at the Rendezvous Center in Torrington on November 19. This event brought together producers and industry professionals to share knowledge, develop professionally, and network with one another.
One of the highlights of the symposium was a presentation by University of Wyoming Livestock Production and Marketing Specialist Rob Ziegler. He delved into the cattle market outlook, shedding light on important trends and factors impacting the industry.
Ziegler highlighted that the current beef cattle inventory stands at 28.2 million head, the lowest since 1941. This decline is attributed to various factors, including advancements in genetics that have led to larger cattle capable of putting on more weight. As a result, the rebuild of the cattle herd may not happen as rapidly as in past cycles.
When it comes to pricing, Ziegler noted that fewer cows in the market typically lead to higher prices for feeder cattle. Interestingly, calf prices went up in September and October this year, contrary to the usual trend of prices going down after calves are weaned and shipped in October.
Looking ahead, Ziegler emphasized the importance of keeping an eye on heifer retention rates to gauge producers’ intentions of rebuilding their herd. Currently, heifer retention rates are not signaling a strong push for herd rebuilding, but this could change in the future.
Moving on to beef prices and input costs, Ziegler touched on predictions by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) that indicate a slight decline in total beef production in 2024. However, larger carcass weights may offset this decline. Despite a forecast increase in per capita consumption, there are concerns about a decrease in consumption by 2025-26.
Although live steer prices are expected to rise, Ziegler cautioned that input costs have also increased in recent years. Data from Kansas State University (KSU) shows that producers are spending more per cow than in previous years, impacting profit margins.
Lastly, Ziegler discussed livestock risk protection as a tool to mitigate market risks. This form of risk management, while requiring an upfront investment and approval from a risk management agency, can serve as a safety net for producers in case of price fluctuations.
Overall, Ziegler’s insightful presentation provided attendees with valuable insights into the current state of the cattle market and strategies for navigating potential challenges ahead.
