Weekly Market Outlook: 25th – 29th November | Forex Trading

This week is full of important economic events to keep an eye on. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the CB consumer confidence index, new home sales, and the Richmond manufacturing index, giving us a peek into consumer sentiment and economic activity. Australia’s inflation data takes the spotlight on Wednesday, along with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy announcement. In the U.S., we can expect a bunch of data including preliminary GDP, unemployment claims, durable goods orders, the core PCE price index, and the FOMC meeting minutes. Thursday is Thanksgiving in the U.S., so market activity may be lighter. Come Friday, Japan will report on Tokyo Core CPI and the eurozone will share its CPI data, giving us a look at inflation trends in those areas.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to make a 50 bps cut this week, dropping the policy rate to 4.25%. Recent data shows progress towards the Bank’s target inflation rate, but economic growth has slowed down, with fewer jobs and a higher unemployment rate at 4.8%. Given this, it’s likely that the RBNZ will continue with their aggressive approach to monetary easing. Analysts are predicting further reductions in the OCR in 2025, with a forecasted rate of 3.5% by the end of the year, slightly lower than previously expected. In the U.S., data suggests a cautious approach to monetary easing next year, with a focus on steady income gains and sustained consumer resilience.

Looking ahead, the eurozone’s inflation data will play a significant role as the ECB considers its policy decision for the upcoming meeting in December. While inflation is projected to rise, weakened economic sentiment and potential tariff impacts may lead to more monetary easing. Market expectations point to a 25 bps cut at the December meeting.

It’s shaping up to be an eventful and informative week. Wishing you a profitable trading week ahead!